Russian naval forces on Sunday captured three Ukrainian naval vessels and 23 crew members in the Sea of Azov. But this wasn’t some accident born out of miscommunication or anger. Instead, this blatant aggression (the Russians fired on the Ukrainians) reflects Russian President Vladimir Putin’s interest in dominating eastern Ukraine’s airspace, land, and water.
President Trump must respond to Putin’s aggression. But before we get to that, let’s look at the map. Doing so, it’s quite simple what’s going on here.
Nestled between Russian-seized Crimea in the west, Ukraine in the north, and Russia in the east, the Sea of Azov is of critical strategic value to both Ukraine and Russia, just for different reasons.
For Ukraine, the sea is a key trading and transit area. For Putin’s Russia, however, the sea is a central plank of Putin’s effort to make former Soviet states pledge their renewed fealty to the Kremlin. In his ongoing conflict with Ukraine, Putin views the Sea of Azov as a crucial space in which to formalize Crimea’s absorption into the Russian federation and Ukraine’s effective subjugation to Russian rule. This ambition explains why Putin and the Russian ultra-nationalist cadres are so fanatically sensitive to challenges to their activity in and around Crimea.
Yet it is particularly relevant that the Ukrainian vessels which were attacked on Sunday were traveling from Ukraine’s western port of Odessa to Mariupol. Mariupol is dead center both in its location on Ukraine’s eastern coast, and in serving Putin’s ambition of an eastern Ukraine that is severed from Kiev. And by controlling Ukraine’s access to its eastern ports, Russia constrains Ukraine’s economic potential. Relying on a mix of brute military force, assassinations, kleptocratic co-option, and the natural sympathy of some Ukrainians, Putin is playing for keeps here.
Regardless, the U.S. cannot close a blind eye to what the Russian leader is doing. This showdown has been coming, and whatever excuses Putin’s cronies in the west might offer up, Russia is using aggression to steal a democratic nation. Trump should direct a number of responses.
First, the president should warn that absent Putin’s immediate and visible de-escalation (Ukrainian vessels left free to visit its eastern ports and the release of the captured crews and vessels), the U.S. will pursue new sanctions targeting Russia. Trump should clarify that these sanctions will focus in on Russian capital flows in international markets.
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Ultimately, the Trump administration must recognize what Putin is doing and why, and why the U.S. cannot accept it. The alternate choice is to follow former President Barack Obama’s Ukrainian policy and embolden Putin’s aggression globally.
This is where American leadership matters most: when aggressors use force to challenge the U.S.-led international order.
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Solid advice for the Trump WH from @TomRtweets here — let's hope somebody is listening. Stakes in #Ukraine are high and rising.https://t.co/gtyeYGGb6s
— John Schindler (@20committee) November 26, 2018
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