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The nomination requires 1,237 delegates. A heavy percentage of those delegates are located in blue states – states more unfriendly to Cruz’s message than Rubio’s.
So here’s the road for Cruz to the nomination.
He needs to finish in the top three in New Hampshire, which is probable at this point. Then he needs to move forward and win South Carolina. From there, he needs to clean up with purple states.
Approximately 1037 delegates come from heavy red states that should favor Cruz, but just 115 of those delegates are apportioned based on a winner-take-all system. 531 delegates come from district-by-district apportioned systems; 309 come from proportional representation states. Cruz should win these states overwhelmingly; if he does, his ceiling could be approximately 800 delegates.
In the purple states, 162 delegates come from winner-take-all systems; another 116 come from proportional representation states, and 46 come from district-by-district selections. Cruz has already won Iowa. The other states include Nevada, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia – and Rubio’s competitive in Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Assuming best-case outcome, Cruz walks away with just over 100 delegates.
Which brings us to the blue states. There are 778 delegates to be allocated in these states. Cruz would have to win just over 200 of them. That’s doable, if difficult – Cruz probably needs to win California in order to take that many delegates overall.
Cruz is well-positioned here, assuming that Donald Trump begins to fade after New Hampshire in favor of Cruz; if Trump doesn’t, Cruz could still face trouble before we hit the late-breaking blue states that cut in favor of Rubio and Trump. Of course, if Trump stays in the race, he could prevent Rubio from winning delegates in the late states, too – he’s more likely to challenge Rubio in Florida and New York, for example, than Cruz in Texas.
If Trump wins victories, we could actually be looking at a brokered convention. But at this point, you’d have to assume that Cruz is the frontrunner.
- Discussion
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On to New Hampshire.
This article is relying on polls to judge strength of Rubio in certain states.
Please: throw out the polls. Everything is re-set.
Rubio has a natural base in Virginia, New Hampshire, and Florida.
New Hampshire is proportional allocation and relatively few delegates. Ted Cruz can finish a strong third there and still be fine. (Beating Trump for second would be ideal).
In South Carolina and in Virginia, it will be important to turn out the evangelicals who have sat at home for so many elections. Cruz can lock up half of Virginia’s delegates (again, Va is a proportional state) if he can carry the southern and western counties. Northern Virginia and DC is strong Rubio country, but we can target delegates.
I truly believe that we can win South Carolina AND Nevada.
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
Scarlett, I knew Cruz had a perfect ground game because I know how that works and it was the best I have ever seen. What I didn’t know is if Trump’s method of stadium rallies would work to beat an excellent ground game. It did not. Thank God, it did not. Permit me to say old angry orange face spouting nasty words about everyone who doesn’t treat him fairly (and he decides what is fairly), could not beat person to person contact in the voting counties.
Cruz has had workers in every state/almost every county in the US and our island possessions since summer and kept adding to them as the months progressed. I have said over and over, every election happens in a county and if you have workers in a county who know what they are doing, the candidate is going to win IF the candidate is a good one to start with.
Constitutionalist Ted Cruz must be President to save this country and now I have hope this can happen – because he is the best candidate and has his fine organization in every state/almost every county/every US possession.
A reason I just joined the Cruz prayer team, as well. He has an excellent ground game, but I think prayer will carry him over. I know some think that is corny, but the reason we don’t have godly leadership is because we have not sought it, either. We know that our common Enemy, Satan, would love to stop Cruz right now, so it is important that we use every avenue open to us to fight for him (Cruz). Then we leave it in God’s hands on election day.
Cruz has stated more then once that we need to put on the whole armor of God so we can stand. Mistakes and misunderstandings will come and go, but I don’t see Cruz deliberately doing anything underhanded to gain an edge. That is the difference between him and Trump and some others…who have knowingly put out false information about Cruz. It goes with the territory, but consistent prayer can only help, not harm.
Pray for righteousness to be restored and for the peace of Jerusalem
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