Analysis: Deace’s Super Tuesday Results Notebook

Source: Conservative Review | March 16, 2016 | Steve Deace


Voters Don’t Trust Trump

In no state that voted on Tuesday did a majority of GOP voters view Trump as trustworthy. It’s one of the main reasons why an astonishing six in 10 Republicans who voted for Cruz or Rubio said they’d be open to a third party candidate if Trump were to become the nominee.

Late Deciders Side Against Trump

The only state Trump won the late decider vote was Florida. In Ohio, these last minute voters broke for Kasich. Over in North Carolina, Illinois and Missouri, they broke for Cruz. Clearly, Tuesday was another night that Trump benefited greatly from early voting.


Mixed Night for Ted Cruz

On the disappointing side of things, Cruz did not get an outright win, and the best he did was get split decisions in Missouri (where the exit polls wrongly had him winning) and North Carolina. But in the long run, Cruz finally has the narrative his campaign has been trying to craft since they won Iowa, with everyone acknowledging that it really is a two-man race now between he and Trump. Cruz also did something in his election night speech neither Kasich nor Trump bothered to — he made an open and direct appeal for Rubio’s support and supporters.

What Happens Next

The next two events on the calendar are next Tuesday — Arizona and Utah. Trump is the favorite to capture Arizona’s winner-take-all 58 delegates due to (again) the early voting advantage. However, Cruz should win the proportional Utah caucus pretty comfortably. After that, the calendar spreads out quite a bit, with the next contest not coming until April 5th in Wisconsin. Republicans hoping to derail Trump’s march to the nomination should pressure Kasich to drop out before then, lest he receive just enough of the vote there to play spoiler for Trump.


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