China’s calculation on supplying Russia with weapons

Source: Politico | February 23, 2023 | Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye

The scary prospect of China sending weapons to Russia is looking increasingly possible.

U.S. officials say they have intel showing that China is considering doing so and that they may even go public with the info to bolster their case. The White House is issuing warnings to Beijing to stand down, as are allies across Europe.

Over the past few weeks, the U.S. officials have worked to convince allies of China’s nefarious intentions and pressure Beijing to back off, as our own ERIN BANCO and PHELIM KINE reported Wednesday. In some ways, supplying weapons would be the logical progression of the “no limits” partnership Beijing and Moscow declared weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But there are skeptics that doubt China would actually take such an escalatory move. NatSec Daily talked to some of the experts who say China has good reason not to send lethal weapons to Russia to use against Ukraine.

Chinese leaders “would have assessed that the state of the relationship [with the U.S.] is already so damaged that [sending weapons] really won’t change things that much,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ BRIAN HART told NatSec Daily. “That would also mean, though, that they’re willing to risk the fallout in Europe as well. I don’t think that we’re quite there yet.”

Doing so would decimate any remaining relations with the United States, as the Biden administration has called that a “red line” in its own relationship with Beijing. Not to mention, the two nations still haven’t repaired the diplomatic damage done by the Chinese spy balloon that floated across America earlier this month.

China has struck a delicate balance between supporting its ally and not angering the world, which is why several experts said they need to see the intel to believe it.

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