Deace: Final Iowa Caucus Predictions

Source: Conservative Review | February 01, 2016 | Steve Deace

<p>Finally, on the ground here this final week for Trump has reminded me a little bit of what happened to Ron Paul in 2012. Paul came into the final week with a similar lead in the Real Clear Politics Iowa Caucus polling average. But by the time the vote was taken enough people had doubts about his temperament to be president that he finished third. And Paul had a dramatically better organization in the state than Trump does now. </p>
<p>I doubt Trump will fall that far, because the cult of his personality is even stronger than it was for Ron Paul. Furthermore, I wonder if the cronyist ethanol lobby loves its subsidy so much more than it cares about the future of the country/party that it goes all-in for Trump to try and stop Cruz at all costs. Yet I do sense people asking themselves these final days if they just want to send a message, or do they want to elect a president?</p>
<p>Do we want to have a tantrum or an election?</p>
<p>This leads me to my final (and personal) predictions for tonight, which are mine and mine alone and shouldn’t be construed as me speaking for a campaign (although I am a Cruz supporter).</p>

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  • Discussion
  • Consistent #187

    Turnout: 145,000 (roughly 20% turnout increase-I’ll split the difference with what I see and what the polls say)

    • Ted Cruz – 28%
    • Donald Trump – 23%
    • Marco Rubio – 19%
    • Rand Paul – 8%
    • Ben Carson – 7%
    • (tie) Jeb Bush – 4%
      Chris Christie – 4%
    • Mike Huckabee – 3%
    • Carly Fiorina – 2%
    • (tie) John Kasich – 1%
      Rick Santorum – 1%
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