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The Path Forward
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There are nine remaining contests for a total of 502 delegates beginning with next week’s primary in Indiana. All of the remaining delegates at stake are pledged to the state or district winner. In order to sew up the nomination before the convention without having to work the existing pile of unbound and unpledged delegates, Trump would need to win roughly 50 percent of the remaining delegates.
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Cruz’s Path
If Cruz wins Indiana, let’s assume Trump still wins the three southern districts and nets another nine delegates. His total now stands at 1,121. Now Trump would need to win 116 of the 172 delegates in California to clinch the nomination. This would necessitate Trump winning statewide and carrying 39 of 53 districts. While a win in Indiana for Cruz could theoretically be enough to block Trump, it is still possible that were Trump to win statewide, he could carry most of the state. Given his uniform and ubiquitous high floor of support, Trump has demonstrated that when he wins statewide he wins almost every district. California is a tougher hill to climb for Trump because a number of wealthy Democrat areas with small pockets of high-income GOP voters are likely to swing against him, even if he wins statewide, and are worth just as much as the larger rural GOP districts in terms of delegates. However, a win of 38 out of 53 districts is still doable, especially with the negative momentum from losing Indiana. This is why Cruz likely needs both Indiana and California to safely block Trump.
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What if Trump Wins Indiana?
If Trump wins Indiana, it will be difficult to stop him. Again, a Trump win statewide would likely result in a complete sweep of the districts, with perhaps the exception of the wealthy CD-5. This would take Trump from 1,112 to 1,166. He would then need 71 delegates, or 24 districts, in California to win. Even if Cruz wins statewide in California, it is not outlandish to think Trump would win close to 24 districts (out of 53) if the statewide margin is narrow. Moreover, the sense of inevitability would make it difficult to lock up some of the remaining states and might push Trump higher in a state like Washington. Cruz would need to recover across the board and change the dynamic of the race in order to survive a loss in Indiana.
However, if Cruz does win Indiana, he will be set on a pretty solid trajectory as the race heads out west. And as long as he wins even a minimal victory in California, Trump has nowhere to go. Until now, Cruz has demonstrated the ability to win states when he is able to focus attention and work the state for several weeks. In California, he is literally all in — whether it’s time, organization, ground game, or money. His biggest challenge will be Fox News, not delegate math.
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- Discussion
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We are in God’s hands. His will be done!
His biggest challenge will be Fox News, not delegate math.
The Trump News Channel https://t.co/ktQHcbmZrl
— Mark R. Levin (@marklevinshow) April 26, 2016
Let me add Drudge Report, and “Conservative” talk shows and Web sites.
Drudge tells voters in 10 states, election is over. So stay home. https://t.co/fR4Nv5nt6x
— Mark R. Levin (@marklevinshow) April 27, 2016
I still am waiting for my states primary. I’m voting for Cruz. The only thing that would stop me is if I’m six feet under by then.
I plan on writing in Sen Cruz on the fall election if he is not on the ballot.
I still am waiting for my states primary. I’m voting for Cruz. The only thing that would stop me is if I’m six feet under by then.
I plan on writing in Sen Cruz on the fall election if he is not on the ballot.
Steve, that’s what we plan to do, as well.
We voted for Cruz here in Virginia, and I’m so glad we had the opportunity to do so. It felt good.
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