‘Trump is underperforming so comprehensively…it would take video evidence of a smiling Hillary drowning a litter of puppies while terrorists surrounded her with chants of ‘Death to America,’’ said an Iowa Republican.
Republican insiders are more convinced than Democrats that Donald Trump is so far behind Hillary Clinton that he can’t win in November.
Roughly half of Republican members of The POLITICO Caucus — activists, strategists and operatives in 11 swing states — believe that Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes is basically shut off after another week in which the GOP nominee appears to have ceded ground in national and most battleground state polls.
Democrats, however, aren’t breaking out the champagne just yet. Seventy-two percent of Democratic insiders said despite Clinton’s clear advantage at this stage of the race, the presidential election isn’t effectively over.
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GOP insiders were virtually split, however: 49 percent said the race was already effectively over, while 51 percent said that it wasn’t.
“While it’s true that previous candidates have come back from greater deficits to win, it won’t happen in 2016. The electorate is far more base-driven, with fewer persuadables,” said an Iowa Republican. “Trump is underperforming so comprehensively across states and demographics it would take video evidence of a smiling Hillary drowning a litter of puppies while terrorists surrounded her with chants of ‘Death to America!’ But in 2016, stranger things have happened.”
“Trump has failed to demonstrate he has a plan and path to 270” electoral votes, added a Wisconsin Republican. “Considering the disadvantage a GOP candidate starts with, the work in key targeted states like Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania has to be error-free. There is no evidence that Trump has done that or that he has much of a ground game to begin with.”
But just as many Republicans said Trump still has a chance to reverse his fortunes — though many said time is running short.
“Outside events could still intervene, and I could certainly see something happening on foreign policy front that changes the face of the race, but as Yogi Berra once said, ‘It’s getting late early,’” a Michigan Republican said. “The problem is, that even when things go wrong with Hillary, Trump cannot stay out of his own way long enough just let her have a bad news cycle. He’s got to show some form of proof of life, and soon.”
Added an Iowa Republican: “Trump Time is running through the bottle of the hour glass. Not quite yet, but getting close. If he doesn’t move in 15 days, it’s effectively over.”
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