Donald Trump has already built a wall. The question is whether it’s a permanent one.
But this wall isn’t made of metal, barbed wire, or any ‘virtual’ componentry. It’s made up of angry Hispanic voters pre-election polls and the early voting data indicate are showing up in droves to oppose the GOP presidential nominee.
Instead of separating Mexico from America, this wall threatens to separate Hispanic voters from Republicans moving forward. As well as threaten conservatives’ efforts to finally implement a sane immigration system that emphasizes national security, cultural cohesion, economic stability, protects wages/jobs, and is meritorious in nature. For the Trump phenomenon hasn’t just featured a hard-line immigration position, but also some of the clumsiest and most incendiary messaging possible on the issue. Thus creating a potentially devastating backlash among Hispanic voters (and many a white, college-educated voter as well).
In the border states of Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico, here is the tale of the tape according to the RealClearPolitics polling average:
In Texas, Trump is leading by 7.6 points, which is half Mitt Romney’s final victory margin in 2012. Even John McCain, R-Ariz. (F, 32%) bested that margin by four points in his blowout loss to Obama in 2008.
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Even under the best of circumstances, sane immigration policy was going to be a challenging sell. For when the strength of your argument relies on respect for the rule of law and the need for cultural/economic sustainability, but the public you’re addressing has less and less regard for such things, you have to be very disciplined and effective in your execution to close the sale.
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Short of an unholy rash of Kate Steinle-like murders or equivalent mayhem nobody would wish for, the task of winning this argument will be made harder going forward — regardless of the results on Tuesday. For example, earlier this year a Pew survey found opposition to building a border wall rose 10 points between September of 2015 and last March. Furthermore, a CNN poll found the public moved from support a border wall by five points in 2015 to opposing it by 17 points now.
What happened?
Simply put, Trump happened. He took a contentious 50-50 issue and poured lighter fluid all over it to make it combustible. So we will have our work cut out for us to avoid a future when sanctuary cities evolve into a sanctuary nation.
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My analysis of how this election has impacted the immigration issue for @CR https://t.co/KX4PVDAP4j
— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) November 3, 2016
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