For most non-political junkie’s last night was just another quiet Saturday night. However, in the world of politics, which will determine the trajectory of our country for the next four years, last night might have been the turning point. If Cruz winds up upsetting Trumpmania in this election, last tonight’s largely overlooked contests would have been the Battle of Midway of this nomination war.
Last night’s results consummate the narrative we’ve been observing since Super Tuesday: Cruz is surging and can defeat Donald Trump for the nomination, but if Marco Rubio and John Kasich do not exit the race, Trump will win.
Cruz won big in Kansas and Maine. Cruz won twice as many votes in Kansas as Trump and more than the entire GOP field combined in 2012. And he closed a massive pre-election deficit in Louisiana and Kentucky to come in just a few points behind Trump and nearly tie him for delegates. Overall, Cruz will net more delegates over Trump from last night. My best estimate (subject to change) is Cruz 71, Trump 60, Rubio 14, Kasich 10. Cruz has now garnered roughly 300 delegates, about 80 less than Trump.
Here are the 8 key outcomes:
- 1. Cruz is surging: Cruz has demonstrated that he can beat Trump even with a crowded field. His over-performance in every state by as much as 20 point as compared to pre-election polling shows that his Super Tuesday victories and superb debate performance have won over both Rubio and Trump supporters.
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