The model now projects 137,184 U.S. deaths through early August.
A closely watched model the White House has cited to predict the severity of the coronavirus outbreak has slightly increased its estimate of U.S. deaths while identifying five states where increased population mobility could pose a significant likelihood of new infections.
Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Georgia have seen at least a 20 percentage point increase in mobility patterns in the past few weeks, in part due to the easing of social distancing restrictions, according to the the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
Another 13 states have experienced between a 15 and 20 percentage point increase, the institute said, citing anonymous cell phone mobility data.
The model now projects 137,184 U.S. deaths through early August, up almost 3,000 from a previous estimate on May 4. Factoring in the margin of error, the new projection ranges from 102,783 to 223,489 U.S. deaths.
Institute Director Christopher Murray said while greater movement increases the risk of contagion, more testing and higher seasonal temperatures would temper disease spread.
……….
- Discussion
-
A closely watched coronavirus model has slightly increased its estimate of U.S. deaths and identified five states with a significant likelihood of new infectionshttps://t.co/4kQ8psjYAu
— POLITICO (@politico) May 10, 2020
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.