Live Discussion: March 15 Primaries (FL, IL, MO, NC, N. Mariana Is., OH)

Source: | March 15, 2016 |

Tuesday, March 15 — 367 Delegates Total

Florida…….99 Delegates, Winner Take All, Closed Primary
Illinois……69 Delegates, Winner Take All, Open Primary
Missouri……52 Delegates, Winner Take All, Open Primary
N Carolina….72 Delegates, Proportional, Open Primary
N Mariana Is…9 Delegates, Winner Take All, Closed Caucus
Ohio……….66 Delegates, Winner Take All, Open Primary


Viewing 13 posts - 1 through 13 (of 13 total)
  • Discussion
  • Consistent #2658

    kleindropper #2660

    Rubio will get trounced in Fla and may even come in third. Too bad that one is winner-take-all because I think it’s a lost cause (but you never know, that Sanders win in Michigan showed nothing can be taken for granted. Not this year.) Rubio dropping out will be a huge help to Cruz and should have been done a lot earlier. The best outcome will be for Cruz to come in a close 2nd to keep the overall popular vote close.

    Kasich will likely take Ohio. If he does it will depend on if he is going for a brokered convention or if he is trying to stop Trump. To stop Trump Kasich must also drop out fast to consolidate people behind Cruz.

    Once Cruz gets 1v1 with Trump he will crush him; then its a matter of delegate counts to the end.

    rodamala #2661

    Once Cruz gets 1v1 with Trump he will crush him; then its a matter of delegate counts to the end.

    I just can not see either Rubio or Kasich getting out of the race until the damage is done.

    Victoria #2663

    rodamala, you said, “I just can not see either Rubio or Kasich getting out of the race until the damage is done.”

    I keep TV on all day and switch from Fox to CNN, and have heard Rubio say he will not drop out if loses Florida. Heard Kasich say he will drop out if loses Ohio. If Kasich wins Ohio, he is staying in until the end. I think Rubio has so much extra ego, he can’t stand dropping out. Besides Florida where he is way behind now, he is getting almost nothing in other states and got no delegates in the last primary group of states that voted.

    I think Trump is going to win and that is terrible, awful, disastrous. Hope he doesn’t get the required number of delegates and it goes to the convention where, maybe, Cruz could win there on the second count of delegates.

    kleindropper #2668

    I think we can read a few things into the exit polls coming in so far. 37% of Republicans said they would consider 3rd party if its Trump/Clinton in the general.

    State by state may give us an indication that Cruz may have a good night in Missouri and Illinois. Here’s hoping.

    Victoria #2669

    Yes, Cruz set his sights on Missouri and Illinois, putting many workers there early, as they are not winner take all.

    For results, I watch CNN as they are better giving results and their map is better, and they put their running numbers up big enough one can see them fairly easily. Fox puts their numbers up in smaller size and one will go blind trying to read those numbers as they change.

    Victoria #2675

    Oops, only North Carolina is proportional. Others are winner take all. Kasich got Ohio, good for him since that is home for him.

    kleindropper #2677

    Do not despair about tonight. Cruz will pick delegates in NC IL and MO.

    And the huge news of the night is Rubio is already moving to support Cruz.

    Now if we could only get that dang Kasich on board, it would be a unified front against Trump

    kleindropper #2678

    Also, losing Ohio goes a long way for denying Trump the 1237. So the RNCs choice is to get behind Cruz or destroy the party for 30 years.

    EVERYDAY #2683

    The Trumpsters are all over social media gloating over their idol’s big wins. I can imagine what they are saying over at FR.

    The people who support Trump are just like their idol: Selfish, mean spirited and cruel. When Marco Rubio announced he was suspending his campaign, Ted Cruz had kind, conciliatory words for his former opponent. I have yet to hear anything conciliatory from Trump. And Trump’s supporters are positively giddy that another candidate has dropped out. They will now double down on Ted Cruz and his supporters.

    Campaigns have really become ugly in recent years, but this campaign has been especially nasty. I shudder to think what a Trump presidency will be like if this is the way he and his supporters behave during the campaign

    Victoria #2685

    I wrote this poem tonight, please notify other members it is here:


    Never had a kingdom so near.
    US was a Republic dear.
    What happened to bring it here?
    Likely it was due to fear.

    Economy sinking so fast.
    Debt raising every newscast.
    Radical Islam bringing bomb blast.
    Foreign illegals coming in mass.

    All gave rise to a rich man possessed.
    Promising great, so great, hope chest.
    Build a wall, deport illegals, no resisting arrest.
    Great trade deals, win after win, no protest.

    What is the cost of this rich man?
    Rich friends hang together a clan.
    King, Princes, Earls, Trump government plan.
    US now Trump Kingdom, the ultimate win.

    kleindropper #2687

    Trump even trolled Rubio about getting out on twitter. Classless

    Scarlett_Says #2689

    The math going forward is brutal. 🙁

    Cruz must win EVERY single delegate between now and June 7th AND then win 2/3 of the massive June 7rd haul in order to get 1237. Put it another way: he has to win 90% of remaining delegates.

    Trump needs 551 more delegates, or, 60% of remaining haul. He can get that by winning every delegate through May 10th, or any combination right up till June 7rd.

    None of this takes into account unbound delegates because they are too hard to predict. Looks like currently there will be 103 unbound delegates just from state rules.

    Further complicating matters is that every state has different rules about what happens to delegates who are “released” when their assigned candidate drops out. Some states count “suspended” campaigns equal to withdrawing completely. Others only free delegates when the candidate formally withdraws from the race. Still others bind delegates through the second or even 3rd ballot no matter what!

    Also, I’ve yet to find a state with rules that allow for a candidate to “assign” his/her delegates to the candidate of his/her choice. Meaning, you can’t just say “Add Rubio and Cruz’s numbers together and we’re all good!” Once Rubio (and Bush and Carson and (yeah right!) Kasich) formally end their campaigns, their delegates generally become unbound (see previous paragraph for exceptions). That means that if the delegate in question just really hates Cruz, he can happily vote for Trump OR he could abstain all together.

    The likelihood of a contested convention with a floor fight goes up with every successive primary/caucus. Kasich staying in the race absolutely kills Cruz’s chance of hitting 1237 and only marginally impairs Trump’s chances.

    FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID

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