Senate GOP on edge over Trump’s falling polls

Source: The Hill | August 5, 2016 | Alexander Bolton

New polls showing Hillary Clinton opening up big leads over Donald Trump in two key battlegrounds has sparked alarm among Republicans who worry he will sink their Senate majority.

Trump has had a bad two weeks, and the damage is starting to show in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, two crucial swing states.

Republican strategists and neutral political experts say if Trump loses by 8 points or more in states with competitive Senate races, he will likely take Republican incumbents down with him.

“If Trump can keep it close then Senate Republican incumbents have a good chance of winning but if he craters, it’s end of story,” said one Senate Republican strategist.

A WBUR poll of New Hampshire voters released Thursday showed Clinton beating Trump by 17 points in a head-to-head matchup in the Granite State and by 15 points in a four-way race with the Libertarian and Green Party candidates.

The same survey shows Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) trailing Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan by 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent.

Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, said it will be difficult for Ayotte to win if Clinton carries the state by 8 points or more.

“Eight to 10 points, a loss like that would be roughly what McCain’s loss to Obama was in 2008, which spelled the end for John Sununu. That’s an awful lot to ask Ayotte to make up,” he said.

President Obama defeated Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the GOP nominee, by 9 points in 2008. Then-Republican Sen. John Sununu (N.H.) ran 3 points ahead of McCain, but he couldn’t make up the margin and lost his seat.

In Pennsylvania, another Senate battleground, a Franklin & Marshall poll published Thursday shows Clinton leading Trump by 11 points among likely voters, 49 percent to 38, and by 13 points among registered voters, 48 percent to 35.

That’s bad news for Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey, another Republican incumbent facing a tough reelection.

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