Solving the Biggest Mystery of the 2016 Election Cycle

Source: Conservative Review | April 25, 2016 | Steve Deace

It’s time to solve the mystery of Donald Trump’s coalition: What is it, how did he acquire it, and how has that impacted both Republicans and Democrats in 2016?

Back in December, the New York Times posted an exhaustive profile of who is the typical Donald Trump voter in a story headlined “Donald Trump’s strongest supporters: a certain kind of Democrat.”

Its opening paragraph says it all and then some:

Donald Trump holds a dominant position in national polls in the Republican race in no small part because he is extremely strong among people on the periphery of the GOP coalition. He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote. His very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats. It’s a coalition that’s concentrated in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North.


Needless to say that is an incredible swing in the results, and it’s based solely on one factor alone: Does the individual contest allow Democrats and Independents to vote or not? If they do, chances are Trump is going to win and win comfortably. If they don’t, chances are Trump will under-perform public polling.

Which brings us back to New York, and the reason we set it aside—because until proven otherwise it’s an outlier for two reasons. One, it’s the first closed primary where Trump way out-performed his public polling. Two, Trump was the only one of the remaining candidates who had a closed primary along with home field advantage.

Both Cruz in Texas and John Kasich in Ohio, had to defend their home turfs with the Trump crossover factor in play. Thus, it’s reasonable to assume they would’ve performed better in winning their home states had that not been the case (especially Cruz, given his overall strength in closed contests).

By the way, guess where the bulk of “open” contests took place during this primary? In the South, Appalachia, and the industrial North.


Furthermore, Trump’s periphery coalition also helps to explain the simultaneous surge in GOP primary turnout, coinciding with the dip suffered by Democrats. In the first 21 states to release exit polling so far, you see two groups emerge as the least likely to vote for Trump:

  • – Weekly churchgoers.
  • – College graduates.


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  • Consistent #5183

    ConstitutionalConservative #5194

    The things mentioned in the article I see as the symptoms but I would go deeper for the root of the problem That is the failure (or success from gov’t perspective) of the progressive socialist government education system. Not just failing to teach the three R’s adequately which is the foundation of every academic endeavor but the failure to translate the three R’s into Common Sense, Reason, and Logic, it is also why churches, colleges, culture and all American institutions are failing and why our foundational documents, Declaration of Independence, Constitution and Bill of Rights are meaningless and lost to so many, they were built on reason, logic and common sense.

    I remember reading several years back a book about the “Dumbing Down of America” a process that has been going on for many years, since reading that I can attest to the fact that the process is now and has been progressing at super hyper speed especially since the governments attempt to institute the common core curriculum.

    That’s just what I think about it all, the fabric of our Republic is being shredded hanging by a thread. I believe Ted Cruz is the last hope of restoration, he went into Harvard (the most progressive liberal university perhaps in the entire country) as a conservative and came out the other side a stronger conservative than any other endeavoring to represent we the people since Reagan. I think he will be better, much more potent and intense than Reagan, the times and desperate circumstance requires him to be.

    CA Surveyor #5201

    >> “Not just failing to teach the three R’s adequately…” <<

    On that subject, one of my wife’s co-workers was late getting to work Friday, because he had to go to a Parent-Teacher conference with his daughter’s math teacher. She had brought home an exam paper with every answer marked wrong.

    He had checked her answers and all were correct.

    The teacher explained that because she had not used “common core” methodology, her answers were wrong. The students that had used CC methodology had had their answers marked as correct, even though few of them had been able to get any correct solutions.

    This is the new America folks.

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