Neither of these candidates wants to hear this right now, but if Donald Trump wins South Carolina by double digits, then South Carolina has to be the end of the line for whichever one of them finishes behind the other. There’s a decent chance that Trump may have mortally wounded himself with his 9/11 truther antics over the weekend, so maybe he finishes second place, or pulls off a narrow win. In which case, maybe Jeb or Rubio can afford to continue jockeying for position behind Trump and Cruz.
However, we have all thought on numerous occasions that Trump was due for a reckoning, and it’s never happened. If Trump’s supporters haven’t left him for mocking a disabled guy, making fun of McCain’s military service, or calling Ted Cruz a “p*ssy,” then you have to assume they won’t leave him for being a 9/11 truther, either.
I’ve written here before that the assumption that Trump has hit his ceiling at 35% is completely unfounded and ignores historical trends of GOP voters. And besides, even if Trump stays at 35%, that’s enough for him to dominate the delegate count if the field does not thin behind him sooner rather than later.
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