To Save the Party, Pull the Plug on Trump Now

Source: Weekly Standard | August 11, 2016 | Jonathan V. Last

Never throw good money after bad.

Donald Trump is not going to quit the race. The Republican party is not going to push him off the ballot. He may have a brief surge in the polls at some point, because the first rule of politics is that all races tighten.

Then again, maybe not. It could be that Trump’s surge came and went during the final week of July and that the tightening period has already passed. But while we’re talking about things that are not going to happen, understand this: Donald Trump is not going to win.

Trump isn’t just behind in the big battleground states. No, what should scare sense into any sophisticated Republicans is that Trump is clinging to bare leads in Utah, Kansas, and South Carolina. He’s behind in Georgia. This is not a presidential race. It’s The Poseidon Adventure.

If Trump were any other figure, Republican party elites would be making cold-blooded calculations about pulling the plug.

But because Trump commands a sub-rational cult of personality, Republicans seem committed to sticking with him, no matter the embarrassment, no matter the cost. And the real perversity is that they seem to be doing it not because they like Trump but because they hate him.

It’s almost as if Republicans who caved to Trump now feel compelled to stick with him now as a way to justify their earlier mistake: We’re going to prove to you how not-craven we were, even if it means wrecking the party.

….

Can it ever be wise to pull the plug on a presidential campaign? Of course it can. When a campaign has no reasonable path to victory and the candidate at the top of the ticket is a drag on the down ballot elections, decisions must be made. There are two ineluctable truths of campaigns: Resources are finite and candidates matter.

….

If Republican congressional candidates cut Trump loose now, they’ll get credit for it with voters, who will at least give their pitch a hearing. Every week they wait, the eventual disavowal becomes less potent.

But there is one more bit of opportunity cost at play.

If Trump loses, then beginning on November 9 the GOP will begin scrubbing his taint from the party. If you think this will be short work, consider that Democrats were able to hang George W. Bush around Republicans’ necks for eight years. The longer Republican office holders continue their embrace of Trump, the more likely it is that Democrats will be able to brand the GOP as a crazy, racist Trumpian institution in 2018, or 2020, or beyond.

….

What these people do not understand is that the White House is already lost this cycle and the Supreme Court with it. Every day spent defending the indefensible Donald Trump is a day not used trying to preserve senators and House members who will be able to fight Hillary Clinton’s agenda. The longer Republicans deny this reality, the more catastrophic the results will be. At this point, the only real question about the Trump campaign is whether it will end in catastrophe for Republicans, or extinction.

Because the first rule of finance is the same as the last rule of politics: Never throw good money after bad.

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