UK strain doubling every 10 days in US: study

Source: The Hill | February 7, 2021 | Justine Coleman

The COVID-19 strain first discovered in the U.K. is doubling in the U.S. every 10 days, presenting a potential risk of increased cases and deaths in the country, according to a study released on Sunday 

A group of researchers estimated that the U.K. variant, called B.1.1.7, spreads at an increased transmission rate of 35 to 45 percent and is expected to become the predominant strain in the U.S. by March. The study, released on server medRxiv, has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a medical journal. 

“Our study shows that the U.S. is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality,” the study reads. 

Scientists determined from half a million COVID-19 tests and 212 genomes that the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) prediction that the U.K. strain would become the most prevalent coronavirus variant in the U.S. by March. 

Kristian Andersen, a co-author of the study and virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, Calif., told The New York Times that “nothing in this paper is surprising, but people need to see it.”

Researchers estimate that the U.K. strain, first announced by the British government on Dec. 20, emerged in the U.S. as early as November 2020. The first case was confirmed in the U.S. in Colorado on Dec. 29 and has since spread to at least 33 states, according to the CDC. 

The strain first found in the U.K. was brought to the U.S. at least eight times on separate occasions, potentially due to increased travel at Thanksgiving and Christmas between the two countries, according to the study. 

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