What Brexit Can Teach us about Donald Trump

Source: Conservative Review | June 25, 2016 | Steve Deace

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See, a referendum is the ultimate protest vote, and since it’s not a partisan election it allows people to give themselves permission to cross the ideological picket line and put their self-interests ahead of their party preference. For example, I remember my first official foray into radio activism was 10 years ago when the elites here in Central Iowa conspired to come up with raising the sales tax to pay for what amounted to community beautification. Because, progressivism.

They had raised at least $750,000 for a regional referendum. The opposition raised about $1750 and had my radio show and some others on their side. There’s no chance you’re winning a partisan election minus direct divine intervention with that disparity, because in that case each side has a built in floor of support you can’t move to yours.

But in a popular referendum we won, 82-18.

We can’t get 82% of Americans to agree on whether it’s partly cloudy or mostly sunny most days around here. But when you tap into populist sentiment, especially when it’s true, and popular referendum is the vehicle, it’s amazing how many people you’ll find agree with you on common sense stuff once partisan blinders are removed.

This also explains why those of us on the pro-marriage side won 31 consecutive statewide referendums on the issue, including blue states like Oregon, Maine and California. Since it was via referendum, minorities (especially blacks) who in some cases are more socially conservative than whites crossed the partisan Rubicon to swell our numbers. Even in the four blue states we lost in 2012, there were more votes for the marriage amendment to the state constitution than for Mitt Romney.

If it was a straight up vote between Nigel Farage and David Cameron for prime minister, it would’ve been far more difficult to make Brexit happen. Cameron would’ve had the power of incumbency, and likely a huge money advantage as well. An element of the vote would’ve been immediately removed from considering Farage because of party loyalty. Remember, even with the perfect storm the “leave” vote still only won by less than four points.

Once we become joiners, human nature has a majority tendency to serve the group interests more than our own. And those contrarians who think it doesn’t make sense to sacrifice what we believe for a political party, but rather the party’s only reason for being is to advance our beliefs, are looked at by the joiners like they have a third eye. Prompting one of my favorite quotes from Thomas Jefferson:

“If I should go to Heaven, but only with members of a political party, I should rather not go at all.”

Furthermore, in elections for executive office, people tend to vote for someone more than against someone. Just ask President Romney.

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Issue referendums are an up-and-down vote on that issue, but executive elections – especially presidential executive elections – are an either/or vote between the alternatives. Therefore, the first thing a candidate must do to win an executive election is cross the credibility threshold.

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Right now, they are sizing up the candidates and asking themselves “can I really see you as the President of the United States? Can I really see you on my television screen every night for the next four years?”

Presidential elections are first and foremost popularity contests. They shouldn’t be, but I should be able to fly, too, but there’s that darn law of gravity. It is what it is. You can’t argue with a force of nature. People like to vote for who they like.

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Unfortunately, Republicans may be poised to come out of their convention with a candidate even better known that voters like even less. And unless that changes, he will not win. Because they’re not voting on immigration, globalization, bad trade deals or “crooked Hillary.” They’re voting for a person.

People liked Reagan, so they were willing to be persuaded towards tax cuts and an arms race with the Soviet Union. People like Obama, so they were willing to be persuaded towards Obamacare. If people don’t like you, you can’t persuade them. And if you can’t persuade them, they don’t like you.

Throw in the fact there’s at least 40% of the vote that will never vote for Trump simply because of partisan allegiance, and there’s really not that many persuadables out there. Which puts even more of an emphasis on your ability to unify and rally your own base, for it doesn’t take much slippage on that front to alter the larger outcome.

Right now, a super majority of the American people doesn’t like Trump, and unless that changes he won’t get a majority of the vote. And that’s all Trump’s fault and not the fault of his immigration positions. It’s his packaging of them in the most vitriolic, divisive framing possible that is hurting his issues, not the issues themselves.

Heading into the heat of primary voting Ted Cruz was the most popular elected Republican in America, and likely the most conservative. One of the ways he did it was by being magnanimous on the campaign trail and the debate stage to his rivals, and sticking to the issues whenever possible. It’s no coincidence his likability numbers plummeted before he dropped out of a divisive race with Trump, which had turned nasty at the end.

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It will persist with the general electorate all the way to November 8th as well, unless Trump can find a way to change it. When elections are about personalities, Democrats win. And when elections are about issues, Republicans win. But if people don’t like the Republican candidate he never gets to debate the issues.

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