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The month of May is going to be a death march for Donald Trump.
He’s not going to win Indiana. Trust me on this one. Internals matter, public polling (as we have witnessed over and over again since January) does not.
If Trump wins 9 delegates in Indiana, that’s a good day for him. Sure, he might win a majority of the delegates out of West Virginia on May 10th to get in the neighborhood of 960 delegates. Then what? Nebraska? Forget about it. Those 36 all go to Cruz. Oregon? Yes, I am fully aware of the Cruz-Kasich detente regarding Oregon, but the majority of the delegates there are not going to Trump. The same in Washington State where most of its 44 delegates go to Cruz.
Montana and South Dakota? Cruz country. Trump will not win one of the 56 delegates from those two states combined.
New Mexico? Proportional and the latest poll had Trump up 2 points over Cruz with Kasich trailing badly. The game there is still afoot.
New Jersey-Trump will take all 51 (and no one will care).
And then the finale in California with 172 delegates. At this stage of the game, Trump likely be at or just past 1,050 delegates. Does 1,050 plus 172 get him to 1,237? No. Will he win 172 delegates in California? No.
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So, today matters little in this GOP primary. Indiana and California are the two that do matter and they matter a lot.
The mainstream media, eager for headlines, will be quick to say, “This is over, Cruz and Kasich are done.” They want Trump headlines.
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- Discussion
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Why Today’s Romp by Trump Doesn’t Matter https://t.co/Jg1BTUYWh7
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) April 26, 2016
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