Forum Replies Created
- Discussion
-
My own chairwoman threatened to remove my credentials. She berated our entire delegation from the moment we arrived to behave with decorum so as not to embarrass the state, then she was caught on camera screeching like a drunken haridan at Sen. Cruz. She also encouraged one young man, a fellow WA state delegate, to scream “shame” at Senator Lee.
I have a purpose in life and it includes making sure she never wins statewide office, EVER.
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
What should we as Conservatives do now?
Talk with your neighbors, your church friends, your families. The RNC’s media blitz has painted this as an effort to steal the election from Trump. As I said above, this was not a “Free the Delegates” fight. They very much helped, but we were a larger coalition of committed conservative activists.What did the delegates say? Is the GOP worth saving or should we start a new party?
There are some who said they are done with the GOP. Others are making plans to go home and change state party bylaws. The majority of people I spoke with were going home angry. They wanted to “decompress”, see their families, and get back to their “real jobs” and “real lives”.Please get involved. Find out who your delegates were. Find out how your local party is organized. See what you can do. Above all: let the voice of the Republic be heard!
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
So, I couldn’t log in from my phone. Sorry!
Ask your questions and I’ll try to answer as best I can.
1. This was NOT about putting Cruz’s name in nomination. This was about striking down egregious rules that seek to stifle the voice of grassroots this year and in the futures. Sen. Lee, Ken Cuccinelli, Graham Hunt, Kendal Unruh, and Morton Blackwell teamed up to challenge these rules.
2. We knew walking onto the floor we had enough signatures from 9 states. Alaska joined us soon thereafter.
3. The WA state chairwoman, the two state RNC committee people, and the neon-hatted Trump whips did everything they could to twist the arms of our delegation. All 26 signers held firm. The chair of our state party (who was, sadly, allowed in a sympathy vote to be our delegation chair) threatened to pull credentials from members who didn’t have their names removed from the roll call petition. The state committeewoman informed me that I had to be in my seat if my vote was to count. I informed her that wasn’t the case for a voice vote and if we had a roll call vote I’d have plenty of time to get to my seat.
4. My state chair did NOTHING to help when I was being harassed. It was a fellow delegate, an 82nd Airborne veteran, who went to get the Sergeant at Arms. My state chair did threaten to remove ME if I was involved in a “confrontation”.
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
Scary is one way to say it…
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
Horowitz’s interpretation of the numbers is slightly different than mine, but the fact remains: We are looking at a fight that lasts into mid May at least, and it is more likely with every day that we last past June 7th.
There are 303 delegates available on June 7th. To lock up the nomination (by winning all 303 which is HIGHLY unlikely due to CA and NM rules) on June 7th, you have to have 934 delegates by June 6th.
Right now I have Trump at 696 (some folks have him 10 points lower.) That means he has to get 238 delegates before June 7th in order to have a chance (again statistically small chance) of winning it all using June 7th delegates. Or, he has to win 38% of the delegates available between now and June7th (620) to even have a shot of winning the nomination with a sweep of June 7th states.
Here is why that is unlikely:
Of the states left before June 7th, only 2 are straight winner take all states: Delaware with 16 delegates and Nebraska with 36. All of the others are either proportional or do a mix of allocations between congressional districts and statewide. What does that mean? It means that the chances of taking all of the delegates in states like NY (95) or PA (71) are incredible low. Trump is far more likely to lose some congressional district delegates in states like Arizona, Wisconsin, New York, Maryland, Indiana, and Washington. Rhode Island (19) and Oregon (28) are straight proportional so there’s no way he sweeps those two. Utah is also straight proportional but it has a 50% winner take all rule. If you think Trump is going to take 50% of the vote in Utah well…
Again, what does that mean? It means that Trump hitting his magic number of 934 delegates prior to June 7 is HIGHLY unlikely. And remember, that 934-to-win-with-June 7th figure relies on you winning every single delegate on June 7th. That’s statistically improbably since New Mexico (24) is a proportional allocation state and CA (172) has 159 delegates that are tied to individual Congressional districts.
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
The math going forward is brutal. 🙁
Cruz must win EVERY single delegate between now and June 7th AND then win 2/3 of the massive June 7rd haul in order to get 1237. Put it another way: he has to win 90% of remaining delegates.
Trump needs 551 more delegates, or, 60% of remaining haul. He can get that by winning every delegate through May 10th, or any combination right up till June 7rd.
None of this takes into account unbound delegates because they are too hard to predict. Looks like currently there will be 103 unbound delegates just from state rules.
Further complicating matters is that every state has different rules about what happens to delegates who are “released” when their assigned candidate drops out. Some states count “suspended” campaigns equal to withdrawing completely. Others only free delegates when the candidate formally withdraws from the race. Still others bind delegates through the second or even 3rd ballot no matter what!
Also, I’ve yet to find a state with rules that allow for a candidate to “assign” his/her delegates to the candidate of his/her choice. Meaning, you can’t just say “Add Rubio and Cruz’s numbers together and we’re all good!” Once Rubio (and Bush and Carson and (yeah right!) Kasich) formally end their campaigns, their delegates generally become unbound (see previous paragraph for exceptions). That means that if the delegate in question just really hates Cruz, he can happily vote for Trump OR he could abstain all together.
The likelihood of a contested convention with a floor fight goes up with every successive primary/caucus. Kasich staying in the race absolutely kills Cruz’s chance of hitting 1237 and only marginally impairs Trump’s chances.
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
I’m in WA state, so haven’t voted yet. (Except that I voted for myself to attend the next level of caucuses so that I can be a Cruz delegate to the National Convention.)
95% of my family lives in KY. I got most of them to vote for Cruz. (A few are registered Independent and couldn’t vote)
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
Sorry I haven’t been around much, friends. The campaign, homeschooling, and health issues are eating up all of my time.
I’m quite proud that my “home” counties in Kentucky : Fayette, Anderson, Mercer, and Marshall all went for Cruz. Just wish I could’ve delivered the whole state for him.
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
Pastor Tim was shot 6 times: one shot shattered his pelvis. 4 shots went in his back. 1 shot went in his head.
Reports from this in his church say that doctors have told them he will make a FULL recovery. No damage to his spine or brain.
Let that sink in–
God is Great.
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
If it wouldn’t be such a disaster for our Republic, I’d love to see Trump elected just so he can break every promise he made to the FR Trumpanzees.
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
Good for Cruz.
What’s Donnie hiding?
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
That’s going to leave blood coming out of Donald’s whatever!
That made me LOL!
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
Cruz wins:
–getting Trump to say “planned parenthood does great things for women” (AGAIN!)
— Speaking Spanish back at Rubio
–Explanation of tax plan
— closing statementNot so great, but not bad:
— tiff with moderator over timing of nominations vs appointments . I suspect Cruz read this: http://www.nationalreview.com/bench-memos/431271/scalia-vacancy— letting Trump and Rubio get away with calling him a liar
— he didn’t actually answer the question about departing DREAMers.
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
Rough money numbers (in $ per vote)
Cruz: $19
Trump : $48
Kasich: $330
Rubio: $644
Bush: $1,440(These numbers were computed based on reported combined PAC and campaign finances spent in NH and vote totals as of 70% of precincts reporting.)
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
I’ll admit to being ticked that Ted didn’t answer that first question with: “I’ll let Donald speak for himself–it is his favorite subject! As to my comments, I stand by them.”
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
Dear Sarah:
You’re an idiot. See how I impugned your intelligence right there and failed to back up my assertion with evidentiary statements? That’s what we call “ad hominem” attacks. It is what you just did to Ted Cruz.Mrs. Palin, you’re an idiot. I say you are an idiot because you just called the man, who stood alone on the Senate floor to filibuster funding of Obamacare, an establishment shill. I say you’re an idiot because you just called the man who called the Senate Majority leader a liar–on the floor of the Senate no less– an establishment shill. I call you an idiot because you’ve either failed to learn the caucus procedures or you failed to understand them. NOTHING Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio, or their campaigns did on Monday night was illegal or a “dirty trick”.
Go home, Sarah. You’re embarrassing us.
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
Should save some more money and end the campaign now.
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
This #TrumperTantrum has blown-up on Twitter!! Lots of good press out of it as well.
Most agree that today was a VER BAD day for old Trump.
By the way, tweets I made the first week of January with #TrumpTantrum (slight difference than what Cruz said) are being retweeted tonight. The Twitter trend is in our favor.
Thanks for the free media, Donald!
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
Dom are you willing to say who you support?
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID
Stuff like pointing out that global temperatures haven’t risen in 15+ years? Heaven forbid we question data and test conclusions. That would be what SCIENTISTS do!
FReeper formerly known as Brothers4thID