House Republicans plotting to win back their majority in Congress fear they are on the brink of a massive wave of retirements that could force them to play defense in a high-stakes presidential election year.
Three House Republicans said last week they would not seek another term next year, catching party strategists off guard. Those announcements came earlier than in a typical election cycle, when members who are ready to hang up their voting cards usually wait until after the August recess or after the Christmas break.
Republicans in Congress strategizing to win back the House say the rush to the exits reflects the depressing reality of life in the minority and a pessimistic view of the GOP’s chances of regaining the majority.
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The job of serving in Congress itself has changed in recent years. Members of Congress now routinely skip town hall meetings to avoid being confronted by angry constituents, they are frequently asked to defend President Trump’s Twitter habits and the House Republican Conference is increasingly influenced by a small group of hard-right conservatives.
“Serving in the era of Trump has few rewards. He has made an already hostile political environment worse. Every day there is some indefensible tweet or comment to defend or explain. It is exhausting and often embarrassing,” the member of Congress said. Even if Republicans were to win back the majority, “our edge would be narrow which means we would live under the tyranny of the Freedom Caucus. Frankly I wonder if this conference is capable of governing.”
Republican strategists say they are bracing for a new wave of exits after members check in with their families over the August recess. Two dozen Republicans won their reelection bids in 2018 by fewer than 5 percentage points; another 25 won by fewer than 10 points.
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Two of the members who announced their retirements last week — Reps. Paul Mitchell (R-Mich.) and Martha Roby (R-Ala.) — represent deep-red districts where their successor will almost certainly be chosen in the Republican primary.
But a third, Rep. Pete Olson (R-Texas), holds a seat that is likely to be competitive. Olson won election to his final term by just 5 percentage points in 2018, and Democrats have signaled that districts like his, in the rapidly growing Houston suburbs, are their prime targets.
Six Republicans have now said they will not seek reelection next year. Two more, Reps. Bradley Byrne (R-Ala.) and Greg Gianforte (R-Mont.), are running for a different office.
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- Discussion
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NEW: House GOP fears retirement wave will lead to tsunami https://t.co/VnUmmQowWr pic.twitter.com/04oVPGMeXR
— The Hill (@thehill) July 30, 2019
Plenty of Republicans should retire and plenty more should have their heads handed to them if they choose to run again. I would say, replace the old timers with new blood, but I’m not sure there are any new Republicans worth voting g for either.
The party has moved to the left — that is, when it moves at all. Most of the time the DC Republicans do absolutely nothing. Republicans promise voters everything, but they just don’t deliver. They had a golden opportunity for about 2 years — the presidency and control of both houses of congress. They did nothing. Now that they lost the house and could lose the presidency and the senate, they are rehashing the same promises they have been making since even before Trump came along.
Even if Trump does win a second term, he still won’t do what he promised in 2016 because this time, his party will be out of power in congress. Only now he will have another excuse — a Democrat controlled congress. A victory for him next year won’t guarantee Republicans will keep control of the senate and regain the house.
If Trump and the Republicans lose, it will be their fault. They will have deserved to. And right about now, I don’t care.
You can count on one hand any GOP member of Congress who has spoken out against Trump, his lies, lawbreaking and immorality. Thus as far as I am concerned, none of them have any morality and think Trump’s behavior is okay. I don’t believe that the Dems are any better. However, I believe that Trump is a criminal and such a danger to our country that I will be happy with any Dem who can oust him.
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