GOP leaders tout their chances to win back the majority, but falling poll numbers for Trump have some worried they could lose seats in November.
A slew of dismal summer polls and a persistent fundraising gap have left some Republicans fretting about a nightmare scenario in November: That they will fall further into the House minority.
Publicly, House GOP leaders are declaring they can still net the 17 seats needed to flip the chamber. But privately, some party strategists concede it’s a much grimmer picture, with as many as 20 Republican seats at risk of falling into Democratic hands.
Far from going on offense, the GOP could be forced to retrench in order to limit their losses. There’s a growing fear that Trump’s plummeting popularity in the suburbs could threaten their candidates in traditionally favorable districts, and that their party’s eagerness to go on offense might leave some underfunded incumbents and open GOP-held seats unprotected.
Internal Democratic surveys in recent weeks have shown tight races in once-solid GOP seats in Indiana, Texas, Michigan, Ohio and Montana that President Donald Trump carried handily 2016 — data that suggest the battleground is veering in a dangerous direction for the GOP.
“Republicans were jolted by the fact that a lot of white suburban voters abandoned them. The question now is whether that trend will continue,” said former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.), who lost reelection in 2018. “If it does, it could endanger some of those districts, particularly in the Midwest.”
The first round of House GOP ad buys included reservations to defend only a half-dozen vulnerable members: Reps. John Katko (R-N.Y.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.); Scott Perry (R-Pa.); Rodney Davis (R-Ill.). Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) and an open seat in suburban Atlanta.
But polling and fundraising lags suggest a slew of other districts are becoming vulnerable, like those held by Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas), Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) and David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), as well as open seats in Texas, the Indianapolis area and on Long Island.
And should the environment worsen, other seats in North Carolina, Minnesota, Missouri, Washington state, central Virginia and Michigan could be at risk.
Adding to GOP fears is Democrats’ fundraising dominance. More than 30 House Republicans were outraised by a Democratic opponent last quarter, and 10 trail in cash-on-hand, according to a POLITICO analysis. Meanwhile, a dozen Democratic challengers had at least $1 million banked by the end of June.
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And while many in the party concede the current environment is bleak, they say they expect Trump to recover enough in the next three months that the party won’t suffer a 2008-style election that would wipe out Republican incumbents in what have historically been safer seats.
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A slew of dismal summer polls and a persistent fundraising gap have left some Republicans fretting about a nightmare scenario in November: That they will fall further into the House minority https://t.co/xF7wubz0uT
— POLITICO (@politico) July 29, 2020
Wow! You mean the Republicans finally figured out they won’t be taking back the house? I’m just a retired dumb secretary and even I knew that. And I see them losing the senate too in the not-too-distant future as well.
Should they lose both houses of congress, it will be their fault. All of them followed the example of their idol, Trump, by sitting around and doing nothing. Actually, they were lazy lumps even before Trump — making promises, then just sitting on their fat fannies and collecting their paychecks, perks and benefits. I guess they thought by hitching their wagons to their star (Trump), they could ride on his coattails to election victory.
Only now, Trump himself is in trouble. I think the federal response (or lack thereof) to the COVID pandemic is what will do in Trump and the rest of the Republicans who have supported and protected him all this time. The mess with COVID is the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back. Voters are tired of broken promises, excuses and blaming others. They saw nothing to demonstrate any real leadership, so they are not going to be suckered into voting for these bums again.
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