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Trump’s ability to build a base is one of the key things that got him here. Now his ability to maintain it will determine whether he gets to stay. But you can’t maintain your base unless you really know who your base is, and Trump has one of the most eclectic coalitions we’ve likely seen in modern politics.
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Trump’s is a base of disparate priorities and ideologies. In many respects, it resembles the constituency model of the modern Democratic Party. Where fire and brimstone black ministers often will vote for the same candidates as homosexual activists like Rosie O’Donnell, all because they have a common need that binds them together — access to government.
Similarly, Trump’s base is a triumvirate of groups who haven’t always aligned with one another but now believe they need him. Despite their varying degrees of Trump devotion.
They are:
1. Trump cult
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a politician build a stronger cult following than Trump, and that’s saying something when you’re coming out of eight years of Barack Obama. But Trump was correct when he said early in the campaign he could “shoot someone” and still not lose these people. These are people who embrace his shtick full throat for various reasons. Some of those reasons are messianic, and some of them are pure entertainment value. Nevertheless, Trump could literally take any position on any issue whenever he wants and not lose these people.
2. White evangelicals
Exit polls found Trump received an even heftier share of this vote than George W. Bush did, when white evangelicals were credited with his narrow victory in 2004. As someone heavily involved in mobilization of this group, I believe there are two primary reasons why they supported Trump so strongly last fall despite his checkered past. The first is Hillary Clinton let it be known throughout her campaign she would use government to declare war on their faith, which drove them to Trump out of self-defense. The other is judicial appointments, which was listed as the most important issue for one in five 2016 voters. And those voters went decidedly for Trump.
3. Rust Belt middle class
These are people who strongly supported Obama in 2008, and then again to a lesser extent in 2012, but then switched pretty decisively for Trump this time. Left behind by Obama’s progressive authoritarianism, they agreed to what amounts to a marriage of convenience with Trump. Hoping he was the authoritarian that would empower government to address their grievances, instead of the leftist constituencies Obama catered to. While many conservatives are turned off by Trump’s talk of tariffs and protectionism, they are emboldened by it. They see these as attempts to level the playing field, rather than a cost that will just be passed on to them as consumers when they next visit the big box store of their choice.
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Therefore, it comes down to this: If Trump doesn’t deliver for white evangelicals and middle class voters in the Rust Belt, he’s likely toast in 2020 — provided the Democrats are capable of nominating a likable alternative.
- Discussion
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Why @realDonaldTrump path to 2020 lies with knowing and serving his 2016 coalition. My latest for @CR https://t.co/yUonEmveZQ
— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) March 4, 2017
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