Former President Trump’s plans to announce his 2024 presidential campaign as early as this summer, well before what he previously indicated, throws a wrench into Republicans’ strategy for winning back the Senate and House majorities in November.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) made clear they want the 2022 midterms to be a referendum on President Biden and his handling of inflation and the economy.
But that strategy will run into trouble if Trump announces his plans to run for president again in 2022. An early Trump campaign kickoff would give plenty of opportunity for Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and other Democrats to make November a referendum on Trump instead of Biden.
Republican and Democratic strategists say Trump will also provide a shot of energy and motivation to a dispirited Democratic base that right now feels less enthusiastic than Republicans about voting in the midterms.
“Midterm elections tend to be referenda on the governing party and given President Biden’s rock-bottom job approval rating, anything that detracts from a focus on the Biden administration and its many failures weakens the Republicans’ ability to take control of Congress,” said Whit Ayres, a leading Republican pollster.
Biden’s job approval rating now stands at 38 percent, according to an average of recent polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.com.
Ayres says Republican voters are significantly more motivated than Democrats to vote given liberal disappointment over the Biden agenda.
“No question about it. The administration has managed to increase Republican enthusiasm and depress Democratic enthusiasm by the way it has governed,” he said.
Former Rep. Jim Walsh (R), who represented a swing district in upstate New York, said a Trump 2024 announcement could hurt Republican candidates in competitive races.
“I think it causes problems for Republicans. If Trump were to announce this summer, I think it definitely causes problems for Republicans,” he said.
Walsh said if Trump launches his campaign, “it’s not going to bring Republicans out this election but what it may do is motivate Democrats.”
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report races four New York House races as toss-ups.
Democrats acknowledge they face an enthusiasm gap but say that would likely change if Trump announces plans to run again for president. They say their voters are already more energized in the wake of the 6-3 Supreme Court decision striking down Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion rights case.
Trump considered announcing his White House bid last year in the aftermath of the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan when Biden’s approval ratings began their downward spiral but was talked out of it by his advisers.
Trump advisers cautioned the former president at the time that he didn’t want to “own” the midterm results if Republicans fell short of winning back the Senate and House, according to a Washington Post report in October of 2021.
The former president is now motivated to announce a bid as polls show he is losing popular support amid the damaging revelations from the House select Jan. 6 committee’s hearings. This has opened the door for potential rivals, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who led Trump 39 percent to 37 percent among likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, an early primary state, according to a recent University of New Hampshire poll.
Republican leaders in Congress fear a new Trump bid would ensure the midterms will be a fight over Trump’s false claims that he won the 2020 election. Leaders in Congress repeatedly advise Republican candidates to focus on Biden’s agenda and the economic problems facing the nation today instead of re-litigating the 2020 election.
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Republican and Democratic strategists say Trump will also provide a shot of energy and motivation to a dispirited Democratic base that right now feels less enthusiastic than Republicans about voting in the midterms. https://t.co/Y4eo4BLMiO
— The Hill (@thehill) July 6, 2022
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