New evidence links the Kremlin to efforts to destabilize Montenegro and slow its path to NATO
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Since 2014, when relations between the Kremlin and NATO deteriorated after the Russian annexation of Crimea, Moscow has taken increasing interest in Montenegro. Why the Kremlin cares about the little country, which is nowhere near Russia and was never any part of either the Tsarist or Soviet empires, is an intriguing question.
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Just how serious Moscow is about Montenegro was revealed in a sinister plot that was unmasked last fall, shortly before its execution. In mid-October, Montenegrin authorities arrested some 20 people, most of them citizens of neighboring Serbia, for conspiring to overthrow the government in Podgorica and assassinate Prime Minister Milo Djukanović, the wily politician who ruled Montenegro from 1991 until 2016. Soon it emerged that the plot ringleaders were two Russian nationalists. While Montenegrin officials were careful not to point fingers directly at the Kremlin, questions lingered about what really happened.
The two Russians were quickly expelled from the country. That several of the Serbs and Montenegrins who were arrested for their role in the plot had served with Russian forces fighting in eastern Ukraine—where Moscow’s proxy war has included the use of foreign mercenaries, including Slavic nationalists from Eastern Europe—appeared to be more than a coincidence. Security services in the Balkans and beyond suspected that Russian intelligence was the hidden hand behind the plot, which seemed plausible given the large amounts of cash and the late-model communications gear found in the possession of the coup plotters.
That said, hard evidence of Moscow’s role didn’t appear immediately. While the Kremlin unquestionably wanted to dissuade Montenegro from joining NATO, assaulting the parliament in Podgorica and assassinating the prime minister to install a pro-Russian government seemed like outrageous behavior, even for Putin’s Kremlin—which is hardly squeamish about employing what Russian spies term wetwork against their enemies abroad.
Now, however, there is solid evidence that the Kremlin was directly behind the plot against Montenegro. As explained this week by Milivoje Katnić, the country’s top special prosecutor, the coup and assassination plot was the handiwork of Moscow. The ringleader was Eduard Shirokov, an officer of Russia’s military intelligence service, known as GRU. This was a fully Kremlin-orchestrated clandestine operation to kill Prime Minister Djukanović and overthrow the government, Katnić elaborated.
Predrag Bosković, Montenegro’s defense minister, stated there is “not any doubt” that Russian intelligence officials were behind the plot, using Russian, Serbian, and Montenegrin volunteers to do the dirty work of shooting up the parliament and assassinating the prime minister. Western intelligence has assisted Montenegrin authorities in the inquiry, and American and British spy agencies—particularly NSA and its British partner, GCHQ—have compiled impressive evidence of Russian complicity behind the plot.
As reported by the Telegraph, signals intelligence, including intercepted phone calls and emails, makes clear that the Kremlin planned and organized the secret operation to use violence to keep Montenegro out of NATO. This conclusion has been confirmed to me by sources in the Intelligence Community, one of whom described the NSA and GCHQ intercepts showing Russian complicity as “ironclad—we have them cold.” How much of that SIGINT has been shared with Podgorica isn’t clear, but it was obviously enough to convince Montenegro that it could confidently call out Moscow for its malfeasance.
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Montenegro is a tiny country, but its people are famously tough and don’t like to be pushed around. Podgorica’s willingness to stand up to Moscow is an encouraging sign that Putin’s application of dirty espionage methods to intimidate and destabilize other countries is now encountering resistance. There’s no small irony here, since Putin and his fellow travelers ceaselessly accuse the United States and NATO of trying to overthrow regimes and implement “color revolutions” under the guise of spreading democracy. Yet in Montenegro, Russia plotted violent acts of war against a government it wished to replace for Moscow’s benefit.
Exposing the Kremlin’s shadowy malfeasance in Montenegro is a good sign that European countries are getting tired of Putin’s unsavory spy games. GRU’s Little Green Men infamously spearheaded the theft of Crimea exactly three years ago, and their operatives remain nefariously active in many countries, especially in Europe. Last summer, clandestine GRU operatives were behind several incidents of violent soccer hooliganism in France, while last October their support for far-right activists in Hungary turned lethal when a neo-Nazi with significant GRU ties murdered a policeman.
The West’s struggle against Putin’s Special War is far from over. In truth, it’s only in its early stages, as Western governments slowly accept the extent of clandestine Kremlin activities aimed at harming and subverting our societies. However, if little Montenegro has the gumption to push back, calling out Moscow for its crimes, the West ought to be able to muster equal courage to stand up to the Russians.
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Chekists behaving badly, Balkan + #GRU edition@VeikoSpolitis @IlvesToomas @edwardlucas @TheRickWilson https://t.co/z2K7QKmgqy
— John Schindler (@20committee) February 27, 2017
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