Why you can be almost certain Bashar Assad is responsible for the Syrian chemical weapons attack

Source: Washington Examiner | April 8, 2018 | Tom Rogan

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Nevertheless, for a number of reasons, it is almost certain that Assad is culpable here.

First off, U.S. military and intelligence monitoring of Assad air forces and chemical weapons related-units is extensive and intensive. This gives context to President Trump’s tweet on Sunday morning, blaming Assad.

But note that Trump also references the compression zone that the Syrian army has established around Douma.

That the president, not known for his love of small details, knows this indicates that he was told as much in an intelligence briefing. The president’s blaming of Assad and Putin also strongly suggests a high intelligence confidence assessment that Assad is culpable.

The speed of this U.S. assessment so quickly after the attack also suggests that the U.S. either tracked the ground forces or Syrian helicopters/jets that launched the weapons against Douma. And there are a number of possible locations from which Assad could have launched this strike. As my map below shows, Assad has many air bases proximate to Douma.

Map of Syria

That said, the strongest evidence of Assad’s culpability is that his is the only military force in Syria with the capability to carry out this attack.

The victims of this attack show symptoms indicative of a high-concentration Chlorine agent, and no other group in Syria possesses either the means of delivery or concentrated form of Chlorine we see here. Moreover, the rapid death toll from this attack also suggests a nerve agent such as Sarin may have been used.

Still, Assad’s near-certain responsibility isn’t simply because of his unique chemical weapons capabilities.

It’s also the fact that the area surrounding Douma is controlled entirely by Assad regime forces. Even if rebels had somehow attained these weapons from an Assad storage depot, how would they have gotten chemical weapons into a position to fire on Douma?

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