Washington (CNN) – Donald Trump’s campaign still lacks a sufficient number of supportive delegates to guarantee that any revolt at the Republican National Convention could be put down, a key committee delegate says.
RNC Committeeman from Georgia and Rules Committee delegate Randy Evans, a lawyer who also works with the RNC and the Trump campaign, estimates that Trump has the support locked up of 888 delegates to Cleveland this month in the event of an effort to unbind delegates, leaving them free to vote for any candidate.
That’s far short of the 1,237 — a simple majority of total delegates — that will be necessary to pass rules for the convention, leaving open the door for efforts to block Trump’s nomination to continue. Evans’ numbers were first reported by The Wall Street Journal.
According to Evans’ tally, 682 delegates are friendly to the delegate unbinding efforts. That leaves 903 potential swing votes.
Getting to a floor vote that allows delegates to vote for any candidate is still a long shot. The all-important Rules Committee creates a draft of the convention rules that will be voted on the floor. The panel has 112 delegates, but it only takes 28 to for what’s called a minority report, even if the majority doesn’t agree, that version of the rules also gets an up-or-down vote and debate on the floor.
Evans, with the help of Young Republican volunteers, has compiled a database of all the convention delegates using a combination of direct phone calls, scouring social media and combing through public affiliations. The effort was undertaken independent of the RNC and Trump campaign, Evans said, though he communicates with them. His priority is a “smooth convention,” Evans added.
By Evans’ estimate, there are currently only about 18 supportive members on the Rules Committee, with roughly 20 whose preference isn’t known.
But Trump’s camp pushed back on the numbers, saying that Evans’ estimate vastly undervalued Trump’s support in Cleveland.
“These numbers are completely ridiculous,” a Trump adviser familiar with the campaign’s whip operation said. “Mr. Trump will become the nominee at the convention and any conspiracy theory arguing otherwise is just plain silly.”
One big wild card is Utah Sen. Mike Lee, who with his wife will serve on the Rules Committee. As one of the highest-profile members of the committee, who has not spoken publicly about his preferences but supported Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in the primary, Evans said Lee could sway a number of his colleagues.
“I think if Sen. Lee stands up in the Rules Committee and says, ‘In the interest of transparency I think the delegates should get their choice,’ I think they get their 28,” Evans said.
Any effort to replace Trump as the nominee still is a long shot. But Evans notes that Trump’s actions over the next few days will play a major role.
“So much depends on the dynamics of what happens between now and when the Rules Committee meets,” Evans said. “If we have another Mexican judge tirade, I think that the numbers go up. If we have what we’ve seen for the last two weeks, then I think it’s not very serious.”
Lee’s office said the senator remains undecided.
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Trump only has 888 delegates #DelegateRevolt #delegateunbound #DumpTrump let's unite!https://t.co/xbaAoUJ2oz
— Kendal Unruh FTD (@KendalFTD16) July 7, 2016
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