Kremlin efforts to sway France’s election failed—but Russian spy-games are far from over
A presidential candidate loathed by Moscow suffers a massive cyber-attack by Russian spies. Purloined emails that are embarrassing for the front-runner are dumped online by Kremlin fronts. Political chaos ensues as Vladimir Putin prepares to reap his reward.
That’s what happened in France a couple days ago. And if all this sounds familiar to Americans it should, since this is precisely the clandestine playbook employed by Kremlin spies against Hillary Clinton last year. However, this time the outcome was very different—and far less edifying to Moscow.
Marine Le Pen, Putin’s openly favored candidate, lost to Emmanuel Macron, the youthful centrist who became the impromptu white knight of everyone in France who wanted to halt Le Pen and her far-right National Front. In fact, yesterday’s election was a total blow-out.
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What happened is clear enough. Early analysis indicates that Macron’s emails were stolen by a Russian hacking group termed APT 28 or Fancy Bear—the very same shadowy cyber-gang which stole Democratic emails in 2016. In reality, this notorious criminal group is part of Russian military intelligence or GRU.
This was anything but subtle. As I recently noted, Putin no longer cares that Westerners know how the Kremlin is trying to install pro-Russian governments in our countries—what is properly termed subversion. Moscow could have covered its tracks better, employing “clean” hackers not already identified by Western counterspies; they chose not to. Indeed, they were sloppy—some of the Macron hackers left behind Cyrillic letters, perhaps in a taunting gesture.
Just as unsubtle was how Moscow employed well-known fronts for its spy services to disseminate Macron’s stolen emails. Here WikiLeaks played a lead role, just as it did in last year’s Russian espionage and subversion campaign against the United States. American fringe-right activists with visible ties to the Kremlin played an important part in pushing this story, too.
France’s reaction to Russian spy-games, however, was markedly different from how Americans responded to the Kremlin’s attack on Hillary Clinton last year. In Paris, the national election commission warned the media not to publish the emails, which had been obtained in a criminal manner. Many voters saw this operation as an attack on France and an effort by foreigners to subvert their democracy—a wholly correct assessment.
The contrast with the United States could not be starker. Here, journalists fell over themselves to get at the WikiLeaks story, reporting GRU’s criminal findings with little or no skepticism. Even establishment journalists in America have reported the case all too uncritically. Really, who can blame them when the rewards for pushing the Kremlin line, intentionally or not, have included riches, fame and top-shelf awards?
In truth, Moscow’s blatant attempt to swing France’s election to Le Pen seems to have hurt her. She was already suffering from connections, real or imagined, to Donald Trump—a figure widely loathed across Europe. The last-minute cyber-dump by Kremlin agents probably helped Macron in the end. Online, French citizens poured mocking vitriol on Le Pen’s party and its naked ties to Putin, as well as on American far-right activists who were openly meddling in their country’s election. The spy-model which worked so well in America last year failed utterly in France.
It bears noting that the dissimilarities between Le Pen and Trump are as great as any similarities. The French far-rightist is a serious and seasoned politician with a command of the issues—not an amateur playing at populism without any grasp of policy matters. Moreover, Le Pen’s linkages to Putin are overt, not a matter of speculation. Last year, she and her National Front openly asked Moscow for a $30 million loan to support coming elections, while Le Pen’s public adulation of Russia’s president is as ebullient as anything uttered by Trump about Putin.
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Nevertheless, NATO and the EU should expect that Russia will keep trying to elect pro-Moscow governments in our countries, using its spy services to subvert our democracy. Germany, which has elections in a few months, will be the next Kremlin target. Given Berlin’s dominance over the EU in political and economic terms—not to mention Putin’s hatred for Chancellor Angela Merkel—this promises to be a clandestine battle royal.
Putin has declared war on the West. Not kinetic warfare, but political warfare. Its aims are identical to the objectives of actual warfare. Too weak militarily and economically to challenge NATO on the field of battle with any hope of victory, the Kremlin has opted for more cunning techniques. Yet Russia’s objective—to install pro-Putin governments in Western capitals—is no different than if Moscow ordered the 1st Guards Tank Army to march westward.
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Over three years ago I warned the West that we were in Cold War 2.0 with Russia, whether we wanted to be or not. That call was largely ignored, and as a result Kremlin aggression against the West has only increased. Now Putin is nakedly trying to subvert our democracies. To date his track record is 50-50, and any Chekist will keep gambling at those odds. Putin can only win this war if the West lets him—which is the choice before us now.
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"Russia’s objective—to install pro-Putin govts—is no different than if Moscow ordered 1st GTA to march westward." https://t.co/NosueaZIrC
— John Schindler (@20committee) May 8, 2017
Russia wouldn’t be successful in their efforts if the voting public wasn’t so gullible.
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