Republican lawmakers wonder when it's time to ditch Trump

Source: Washington Examiner | June 5, 2017 | W. James Antle III

Republican lawmakers face a big decision: Should they continue to ride with President Trump in hope that his poll numbers improve or abandon him to save themselves in the 2018 elections?

Trump’s presidency is off to a rocky start. His job approval rating is flailing below 40 percent in the latest RealClearPolitics national polling average. The White House looks chaotic. The Republican legislative agenda is mired in Congress. The Russia investigation has started heating up with the appointment of a special counsel and ominous headlines every day.

Congressional Republicans publicly criticized Trump’s handling of the firing of FBI Director James Comey and are growing impatient with the outrage du jour, though most GOP politicos still request anonymity to discuss the president candidly. “[Y]ou have this White House that is lurching from crisis to crisis, image of disarray,” said a Republican pollster. “They can’t get their hands around the basic day-to-day agenda.”

Next year, all 435 House members and a third of senators are up for re-election. The Senate map favors the Republicans, but the GOP controls just 52 of 100 seats. Its position in the House could be more precarious. Republicans have a 24-seat majority, which includes 23 members representing districts Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Some of them are already starting to panic.

“Members’ actions will depend on their states or districts,” said Tim Miller, former spokesman for Jeb Bush’s presidential campaign and an anti-Trump super PAC. “While Trump’s approval rating is declining nationally, it is still very strong in most of the states where the Senate will be contested (West Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, etc.). In certain urban/suburban House districts — Miami, Denver, Northern Virginia-type places — candidates didn’t pay a price for opposing him in 2016, and I expect they will [successfully oppose him] again.”

“I think we are a long way away from a more expansive distancing given Trump’s strength with Republicans, seniors, rural/exurban voters,” Miller added.

Another Republican with Capitol Hill ties said, “If you’re talking about the scandal of the week, it’s a fend-for-yourself situation. But as long as you’re focused on the agenda, people want to stick together at this point.”

Republican political organizations, such as the National Republican Congressional Committee, are nowhere close to ditching Trump to save the congressional majorities. “First off, the Trump administration has been very helpful to the NRCC,” a committee insider told the Washington Examiner. “President Trump keynoted the annual March Dinner and helped raise $30 million for the committee. Vice President Pence has been all over the country for Republican candidates.”

“We tell our candidates to make sure they listen to their constituents and fit their districts, but we’re stressing that they need to cut out whatever cable news is obsessing over that hour and focus on what the American people truly care about, which is jobs and the economy,” the insider said.

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