Conventional wisdom says that an incumbent president loses seats in the House and Senate in the first midterm elections after he is sworn in. Like many things with Donald J. Trump, conventional wisdom is looking more likely to be turned on its head during the 2018 elections. After the election of John Kennedy in Louisiana last weekend, the Republicans will hold 52 seats in the Senate, Democrats 46. In 2018 the Democrats are slated to defend half of their remaining seats, plus two seats where the “independent” caucuses with the Democrats. Trump won ten of those states. The GOP has a real shot of gaining a supermajority.
You may be thinking it is too early to be talking about such things as the 2018 election, when the winners of the 2016 elections haven’t even been sworn in. You’re probably right. But an understanding of the 2018 election adds another dimension to why the Left is in such a panic over the upcoming two years. It will be very hard for Democratic incumbents in states that voted for Donald Trump to go against his agenda if they want to be reelected. After all, being reelected is the number one job of the politician, not governing.
How bad is it for the Democrats? This bad.
Democratic incumbents in Montana, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Florida each represent a state that Donald Trump won in 2016. Of those ten states, Mitt Romney won five (West Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, and Montana) back in 2012. And of those five, John McCain, R-Ariz. (F, 32%) carried all but one (Indiana) back in 2008 — which means four states of the ten have been solidly Republican in the last three presidential elections! Those incumbents are in for a rocky ride in 2018.
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Why 2018 may be even worse for Democrats than 2016 via @RobEno @CR https://t.co/7NJyEvMjfn
— Brian Phillips (@RealBPhil) December 14, 2016
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