Deace: Iowa Caucus Winners & Losers

Source: Conservative Review | February 02, 2016 | Steve Deace

Yesterday here at Conservative Review, I predicted that Ted Cruz would defeat Donald Trump, 28-23, in the highest-turnout Iowa Caucus ever. Unfortunately, I was wrong, though not as wrong as the public polling industry (again).

Cruz actually beat Trump 28-24 in the highest-turnout Iowa Caucus ever.


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  • Consistent #278


    The public polling industry’s house of cards continues to crumble. The Real Clear Politics polling average forecasted Trump to win Iowa by five points, but he lost by four for a nine-point swing in the wrong direction. Furthermore, while Iowa Republicans did have historic level turnout, it was nowhere near the additional 100-200% tectonic shifts the public polling industry (including the overrated Des Moines Register poll) said was coming. Once and for all, we need to stop letting these flawed public polls and our overreaction to them dominate the daily news cycle.

    The media’s near teenybopper level of obsession with Trump the past six months led to The Donald receiving an unprecedented level of free media to boost his campaign and polling profile. And yet in the very first contest Trump received less than 25% of the vote and barely held on to second place. Proving once again media culture is not the same as everyday America.


    Bryan English and the organization his Iowa team built for Cruz is the best caucus operation the GOP has ever seen. Withstanding weeks of attacks coming from all sides to build a fiercely loyal base that remained steadfast for Cruz regardless of media perception that they had peaked too early.

    Since we’re on the topic of successful organizations, former Iowa State football star and current State Senator Jack Whitver took months of skepticism (including from me) that his Marco Rubio organization wasn’t good enough. Yet on caucus night Rubio out-performed his RCP average by six points, which will only further cement Whitver as a rising star in the Iowa GOP.


    • This topic was modified 6 years, 6 months ago by Consistent.
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