Donald Trump has a GENEROUS ceiling of 19 out of 22 statewide delegates in WV.

Source: RedState | April 16, 2016 | Moe Lane

VERY generous. The likely ceiling is lower.

So: after I posted this article on the weirdness that is the West Virginia delegate selection process I then went and crunched some numbers.  Luckily, the Secretary of State for West Virginia has provided us with delegate candidate lists – which meant that we could look at the data, and try to make sense of that data.  So what I did here was export the list of the at-large delegates to a spreadsheet, isolated out the Donald Trump supporters, sorted them by town, then sorted them by county, and then finally sorted them by Congressional District.  I then removed names and street addresses – because that’s what civilized people do – and came up with the table below of Trump delegate candidates:

CD County Town
1 Hancock Weirton, WV
1 Harrison Bridgeport, WV
1 Harrison Enterprise, WV
1 Harrison Lumberport, WV
1 Monongalia Morgantown, WV
1 Monongalia Morgantown, WV
1 Pleasants St. Marys, WV
2 Kanawha Charleston, WV
2 Kanawha Charleston, WV
2 Kanawha Charleston, WV
2 Kanawha Charleston, WV
2 Kanawha Charleston, WV
2 Kanawha Charleston, WV
2 Kanawha Charleston, WV
2 Kanawha Charleston, WV
2 Kanawha Dunbar, WV
2 Kanawha Sissonville, WV
2 Kanawha So Charleston, WV
2 Kanawha St Albans, WV
2 Kanawha St Albans, WV
2 Pendleton Seneca Rocks, WV
2 Putnam Hurricane, WV
2 Putnam Scott Depot, WV
3 Cabell Barboursville, WV
3 Cabell Huntington, WV
3 Cabell Ona, WV
3 Fayette Glen Ferris, WV
3 Fayette Victor, WV
3 Mingo Baisden, WV
3 Raleigh Glen Daniel, WV
3 Wayne Genoa, WV

Fortunately for my sanity, West Virginia has a clean CD map that follows county lines. So, so far, so good. To break it down farther, here are the county totals:

Hancock 1
Harrison 3
Monongalia 2
Pleasants 1
Kanawha 13
Pendleton 1
Putnam 2
Cabell 3
Fayette 2
Mingo 1
Raleigh 1
Wayne 1

And here are the CD totals:

CD-1 7
CD-2 16
CD-3 8

With me, so far? Great. Now where’s where the problems start for Team Trump.  As we found out today, there is a cap imposed by the West Virginia Republican party: no more than two statewide delegates can come from any one county, or seven from any one Congressional District (the twenty-second delegate is apparently the top vote-getter, period)…..

Shorter version: Donald Trump CANNOT sweep West Virginia…… If I was going to guess, I’d say five additional at minimum, fifteen max, final number around 23-25 delegates (out of 34 total) officially committed to Trump*.

….

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