Scientists warn that the data may be too unreliable to guide the precautions that governments, businesses and retirement fund managers must take in the coming decades.
A new breed of data-crunching consultants has emerged to help big corporations and federal agencies assess the long-term dangers they face from climate change — everything from flooding risks for electrical substations to drought threats for supply chains.
But while those firms’ computerized projections may help satisfy shareholders’ and activists’ demands for fuller risk disclosures and stronger actions to counter the threats, scientists warn that the data may be too unreliable to guide the precautions that governments, businesses and retirement fund managers must take in the coming decades, creating a false sense of security.
Even worse, the climate analytics firms often shield their data models from public scrutiny as proprietary information, unlike the computer models that academic and government researchers typically rely on for their less granular projections of the warming planet. That makes it impossible to independently validate their work, scientists say.
“Do these guys know what they are doing? I’m not convinced that they do,” said Upmanu Lall, director of the Columbia Water Center at Columbia University, who has reviewed some firms’ methodologies. “Your models are garbage. And, unfortunately, that’s a problem.”
“It’s not that [they] have some special sauce,” said Rutgers University climate scientist Robert Kopp, who contributes to climate analytics service firms Rhodium Group and First Street Foundation, which publish their methodologies. “[They] don’t want to talk about what you’re doing.”
Federal agencies that set public climate policy have been turning to these firms to weigh the flood risks to homes and for post-disaster rebuilding efforts to ensure new structures can withstand the effects of the changing climate.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Finance Agency and NASA all have met with such firms to explore tools purporting to help protect taxpayers, banks and homes from rising seas, worsening rainstorms and severe droughts linked to climate change.
Some firms deny that they’ve shielded their methodologies from clients, saying that transparency is important to build confidence in their work, even if they don’t broadly disseminate their models.
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A new breed of data-crunching consultants has emerged to help corporations and federal agencies assess the long-term dangers they face from climate change. But scientists warn that the data may be too unreliable to work with. https://t.co/6ILeB3aDQ9
— POLITICO (@politico) March 16, 2021
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