Republicans are growing increasingly worried that President Trump’s slide in the polls following his COVID-19 diagnosis, coupled with an outbreak at the White House, is posing a major threat to their Senate majority.
The presidential campaign has quickly become one of the most tumultuous in modern history, but there’s more than enough turmoil and uncertainty to go around as both parties battle for control of the Senate.
One of the main concerns for Senate Republicans is Trump’s cash crunch, which has forced him to cut back on advertising in key battleground states at a time when Senate Democratic challengers are projected to significantly outraise GOP incumbents heading into the final stretch.
Another challenge for Republicans is the expanding battleground map, with traditionally red states such as Alaska, Kansas and South Carolina becoming more competitive as Democratic incumbents in Michigan and New Hampshire build comfortable leads.
Republicans are defending 23 seats, while Democrats need to protect only 12.
One GOP senator who requested anonymity to speak freely on the likelihood of Republicans losing the majority said Trump’s poor numbers are a serious headwind.
Trump is “not doing so well” in some states he won handily four years ago, the lawmaker said, “so we worry right now.”
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The debate performance combined with Trump’s handling of his own COVID-19 diagnosis allowed Biden to widen his lead over the president.
Biden’s lead jumped from 6 percentage points the day of the first presidential debate to nearly 9 points on Friday, according to the RealClearPolitics average of national polling data. His lead also surged from just 1 point in Florida to nearly 4 points, from 5 points to 7 points in Michigan and from 6 points to 7 points in Pennsylvania.
A Quinnipiac University poll in Iowa conducted Oct. 1 to Oct. 5 showed Biden opening up a 5-point lead in the Hawkeye State.
Steve Jarding, a Democratic strategist, said the president’s COVID-19 diagnosis carries dire political implications.
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In Montana, a state Trump carried by 20 points in 2016, the president is leading Biden by 9 points, a drop that’s causing GOP jitters over the fate of Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) in his tough race against Gov. Steve Bullock (D).
In South Carolina, which Trump carried by 14 points four years ago, the president has a slim 5-point lead over Biden. That’s a problem for Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who’s in the toughest reelection fight of his career.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report this past week moved the South Carolina race from “lean Republican” to the more uncertain “toss-up.”
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Senate Republicans control 53 seats, and Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.), who is trailing badly in the polls, is expected to lose in November. That means Democrats need to capture at least four Republican-held seats and the White House to win back the majority. If Biden loses to Trump, Democrats would need to capture five GOP seats.
- Discussion
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GOP sees falling Trump stock as growing threat to Senate majority https://t.co/LoJV9c8ANd pic.twitter.com/JnoX8deX29
— The Hill (@thehill) October 11, 2020
Gee! Ya think?
Serves the GOP right for hitching its wagon to Trump’s star. They all knew he was corrupt and incompetent, but they insisted on following him like sheep. Well, if they are all “slaughtered” in November, it will be their fault.
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