Leaked military docs on UKR battlefield operations circulated as early as March

Source: Politico | April 7, 2023 | Lara Seligman, Erin Banco, Paul McLeary and Alexander Ward

The leak is one of the most high-profile breaches of military intelligence since the Russian invasion in 2022.

A tranche of leaked documents that detail plans about Ukraine’s spring military offensive circulated online as early as March — a month earlier than previously reported, according to researchers with Bellingcat and a review of social media postings.

The batch includes more pages than originally known and also outlines sensitive information about other global hotspots.

The Ukraine-specific documents, photographed and distributed on myriad social media sites, outline everything from Ukraine’s readiness and training capabilities to death tolls on the battlefield. They date from the end of February to the end of March — around the same time as senior American generals hosted the Ukrainian military at a U.S. base in Germany to wargame the spring operation.

The materials that circulated in early March were uploaded on a Discord, an encrypted messaging app. They appear to be photos of slide deck printouts that were folded up and then smoothed out again. They have since been posted on other social media websites, including Twitter and Telegram.

It’s unclear who originally obtained the documents, who leaked them and the extent to which they’ve been altered. It’s also possible an even earlier version exists.

A senior administration official, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive intelligence matter, said President Joe Biden’s team is “concerned” by the large document leak. “This could be a Russian disinformation operation,” the official continued, citing the manipulations to the documents. “Russia has a history of manipulating information for disinformation purposes.” The official wouldn’t detail when the administration first became aware of the leak.

There are discrepancies between the documents posted in March and those circulated this month, suggesting the earlier tranche could be the original versions — or at least closer to it.

The leak is one of the most high-profile breaches of military intelligence since the Russian invasion in 2022 and comes at a time when Ukraine is preparing to launch the spring offensive. The documents “represent a significant breach in security, which could compromise U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine,” said Mick Mulroy, a former DoD official and CIA officer.

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