The FBI Raids on Trump’s Attorney Are Bad News for Trump

Source: Politico | April 9, 2018 | Norman Eisen, Noah Bookbinder and Conor Shaw

Special Counsel Robert Mueller would not do this lightly.

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The evidence sought by investigators reportedly relates to bank fraud and campaign finance violations, both of which primarily point to one thing. Cohen apparently used a home equity credit line to borrow the $130,000 he paid Stormy Daniels for her silence just weeks before the 2016 election. If Cohen lied to obtain credit from a federally insured financial institution, that is a felony punishable by up to 30 years’ imprisonment. And because the payment was likely an in-kind contribution to the Trump campaign, it could constitute a willful violation of campaign contribution limits, a separate felony punishable by up to five years’ imprisonment.

That the investigation of Cohen was apparently referred by Special Counsel Robert Mueller to the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York—a Trump appointee—is an early indication that at this point, the matter is not directly related to the Russia investigation. But that doesn’t mean Trump’s exposure is any less serious. Cohen knows where the LLCs are hidden. He’s been at the center of Trump’s financial universe for decades. If he is as exposed as he seems on the Stormy Daniels payment, one wonders what information he might be able to offer prosecutors—including Mueller—in exchange for a deal.

In addition, while the guilty pleas of Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos, deputy campaign chair Rick Gates, and former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn were all significant, none of them directly jeopardized the president the way a Cohen deal would. If the FBI seized evidence showing that Trump directed Cohen’s payment to Stormy Daniels, Trump may also have committed a felony violation of campaign finance law. If Cohen and Trump worked together to come up with the scheme, they might also both be guilty of conspiring to commit a campaign finance violation. And if Trump (notwithstanding his recent denial) actually knew that he was the beneficiary of the non-disclosure agreement, he might be guilty of a separate offense—failing to report that asset on his personal financial disclosure form.

The president seemed to recognize the seriousness of the development immediately. He launched one of his most predictable and worrying tirades yet. In addition to blaming the Cohen raids on his political opponents and berating Attorney General Jeff Sessions for his recusal from the Russia investigation, Trump floated the possibility of firing Special Counsel Mueller (who ironically acted exactly as Trump would have wanted him to and referred allegations potentially outside of his scope to another prosecutor rather than expanding the scope of his own investigation).

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That the president of the United States is one file cabinet of seized evidence away from possible exposure to a felony charge is a remarkable thing. That the facts giving rise to such a possibility have nothing to do with obstruction of justice or the various crimes that might fall under the “collusion” umbrella is even more noteworthy given the dizzying speed at which Special Counsel Mueller has proceeded. If Mueller referred this matter, one wonders whether he caught Cohen in any Russia-related malfeasance and whether Trump was involved.

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