His opponents think his evidence-free claims of voter fraud have no chance of winning. They already are.
In fundraising emails and text messages as well as social media strafes, in the mornings and in the evenings and throughout the wee hours, President Trump is peddling a vague, vast conspiracy of “ILLEGAL VOTES” and “ILLEGAL BALLOTS” and “blatant voter fraud” in states from the Northeast to the Southwest. The tweets just keep coming. “WE WILL WIN!”
He will not, because no such fraud exists, according to the diligent debunking of reporters, weary fact checkers, Democrats and a slowly increasing number of Republicans, too. “NO FRAUD,” read the headline at the top of the front of Wednesday’s New York Times. On Thursday, in the Wall Street Journal, none other than GOP lion Karl Rove said there’s “no evidence” of the level of malfeasance Trump is not only alleging but requires to reverse the results of the election. All of this is necessary, norm-adhering, invaluable pushback—and also misses perhaps the most crucial point.
Trump is not making a narrow, surgical, legally feasible case to enhance his chances to still be living in the White House come January 21. (That’s … improbable.) He’s not doing this, either, to win the argument. (It’s almost mathematically impossible.) He’s doing it, say political strategists, longtime Trump watchers and experts on authoritarian tactics, to sow doubt, save face and strengthen even in defeat his lifeblood of a bond with his political base.
And it’s … working. Seven in 10 Republicans, according to a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll earlier this week, believe the election was stolen from their candidate.
It is overall for Trump both a culmination and a continuation: a grand finale of sorts of the past five-plus years, in which he’s relied so much on so much unreality—and also a runway, a kind of topspin toward what’s to come once he leaves Washington, D.C., and presumably decamps to Mar-a-Lago to initiate a post-presidency that is all but assured to be unlike any other. The stakes are sky-high, and the collateral damage to America’s democracy could be lasting and profound, but Trump is doing what Trump has always done. He’s spinning a myth to serve his own interest. He’s doing what he believes he needs to do to put at least himself in the best possible position for the future after yet another failure.
“This isn’t about winning the presidency,” former Trump publicist Alan Marcus told me this week. “It’s his exit strategy.”
“It’s not about the vote-counting,” said Rory Cooper, a Republican strategist and a former adviser to Eric Cantor when he was the House Majority Leader. “His entire persona is built on the idea of winning despite his decades of not winning. He’s constantly creating a legend, frankly, about himself rather than a truthful narrative, so I’m not surprised that he’s going to use this to convince his supporters that the election was unfair and that he remains the leader of the Republican opposition.”
He added: “He’s going to have to take care of financial issues once he’s out of office, and he’s going to make a lot of money. He’s going to make a lot of money on books. He’s going to make a lot of money on speeches. He’s going to be able to hold rallies and charge for them. Putting everything from the Southern District of New York aside, and what could happen to him in Manhattan, just on the sheer financial side of it, the martyring of Trump—martyring himself—is good for business.”
Cooper said it’s imperative for Trump to keep active the potential for another run in 2024. “Whether he wants to do that or not, the idea that he could do it needs to remain alive from a profitability standpoint,” he said.
“If you hold out that possibility, it guarantees that he just kind of remains relevant, remains in the spotlight, remains a source of chaos, disorder and division, which is what he seems to thrive on,” said Lawrence Douglas, an Amherst College professor of law, jurisprudence and social thought, who wrote a book that was published back in May—Will He Go?
“He’s not losing,” Marcus said. “He’s winning.”
“I honestly don’t think it could be working out any better for him,” Cooper said.
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“This isn’t about winning the presidency,” former Trump publicist Alan Marcus said. “It’s his exit strategy.” https://t.co/UBsK1tiKZI
— POLITICO (@politico) November 13, 2020
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