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How are Delegates awarded?
There are 95 delegates at stake in today’s New York Republican Primary. 14 delegates are bound statewide, and 81 delegates are bound three each in the state’s 27 congressional district.
The statewide delegates are bound proportionally with a 20 percent threshold. If a candidate receives more than 50 percent of the statewide vote, that candidate receives all 14 delegates.
The congressional district delegates are awarded two to the winner, and one to the runner-up. If a candidate is the only candidate to receive over 20 percent, or has over 50 percent of the vote in a congressional district, that candidate receives the three votes in that district.
The actual delegates will be awarded at district meetings for the district delegates, and at the state committee meeting for the at-large delegates. The three RNC members will be bound according to the results of the primary.
Predictions?
Trump will win his home-state primary easily. He is projected to win with over 50 percent of the vote statewide. If he does that he will get the vast majority of the delegates, with Cruz and Kasich picking up a handful each in some congressional districts.
Because of the party switching deadline being last October, there is a possibility that independents think they can vote for Trump, and are answering pollsters’ questions. That is why there is a possibility, higher than many believe, for Trump to finish under 50 percent. Here’s a look at how that may play out.
Here’s how the delegate math would play out if Donald Trump were slightly over 50 percent. With a statewide win, Trump would win the 14 statewide delegates. With 17 district wins above 50 percent, and six districts with under 50 percent, and a second place finish in the remaining six districts, Trump would garner 81 delegates. Splitting the other wins and second place finishes could give Kasich eight and Cruz six. That is a very good scenario for Trump.
Here’s what happens if the election ends up Trump 49, Kasich 26 and Cruz 25. The statewide delegates are split Trump seven, Kasich four, and Cruz three. The number of districts Trump would win with over 50 percent could be cut in half, to nine for 27 instead of 51 delegates. Cruz and Kasich would pick up a significant amount of second place finishes in the districts. In that scenario, it is possible for Trump to finish with 64 delegates, Kasich 18, and Cruz 13.
A finish under 50 percent would be devastating to the “Trump is going to crush it in the Northeast” narrative. Even if Cruz didn’t come in second, it would hurt Trump in the Northeast primary the following week as it would end The Donald’s false narrative of inevitability.
Even if Donald Trump were to win every delegate today. He would only tie Cruz for the month of April.
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- Discussion
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Here's what you need to know about the concrete jungle's primary today. https://t.co/DQ6Wm4qKzm
— Rob Eno (@Robeno) April 19, 2016
I pray that upstate NY votes overwhelmingly for Cruz! Maybe it will keep Trump well under 50%
Pray for righteousness to be restored and for the peace of Jerusalem
I caution folks to remain realistic about New York. What we want out of new york is enough delegates to block trump from winning the first round of voting. OR get us closer to that objective.
It would be nice for Trump to get obliterated today, but Ive learned not to get my hopes up when it comes to the folks in the north east (except for Main). they always let me down. Better to keep it real and not take a hit to morale. 😉
Be prepared for the “Trump is inevitable” onslaught.
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